feat(prompt-budget): bundle startup context estimates

adapters/prompt-budget-baseline.json

@@ -1,23 +1,27 @@
 {
   "regression_percent": 10,
-  "permanent_context_soft_target_tokens": 4000,
-  "permanent_context_hard_limit_tokens": 6000,
+  "permanent_context_soft_target_tokens": 10000,
+  "permanent_context_hard_limit_tokens": 15000,
   "metrics": {
     "permanent_context_tokens": {
-      "claude": 4029,
-      "codex": 2603
+      "claude": 14521,
+      "codex": 12997
     },
     "instruction_tokens": {
-      "claude": 1479,
-      "codex": 1479
+      "claude": 1485,
+      "codex": 1485
     },
     "skill_metadata_tokens": {
-      "claude": 2550,
-      "codex": 1124
+      "claude": 12233,
+      "codex": 10784
+    },
+    "auto_loaded_rule_tokens": {
+      "claude": 678,
+      "codex": 678
     },
     "rule_catalog_tokens": {
-      "claude": 28036,
-      "codex": 8058
+      "claude": 28818,
+      "codex": 8510
     },
     "agent_metadata_tokens": {
       "claude": 126,

adapters/prompt-budget-baseline.tsv

@@ -1,11 +1,13 @@
 metric	client	baseline_tokens
-permanent_context_tokens	claude	4029
-permanent_context_tokens	codex	2603
-instruction_tokens	claude	1479
-instruction_tokens	codex	1479
-skill_metadata_tokens	claude	2550
-skill_metadata_tokens	codex	1124
-rule_catalog_tokens	claude	28036
-rule_catalog_tokens	codex	8058
+permanent_context_tokens	claude	14521
+permanent_context_tokens	codex	12997
+instruction_tokens	claude	1485
+instruction_tokens	codex	1485
+skill_metadata_tokens	claude	12233
+skill_metadata_tokens	codex	10784
+auto_loaded_rule_tokens	claude	678
+auto_loaded_rule_tokens	codex	678
+rule_catalog_tokens	claude	28818
+rule_catalog_tokens	codex	8510
 agent_metadata_tokens	claude	126
 agent_metadata_tokens	codex	52

scripts/lib/prompt-budget.py

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ METRICS = (
     'permanent_context_tokens',
     'instruction_tokens',
     'skill_metadata_tokens',
+    'auto_loaded_rule_tokens',
     'rule_catalog_tokens',
     'agent_metadata_tokens',
 )
@@ -40,12 +41,17 @@ def measure_package(package, client):
 
     if client == 'claude':
         rule_files = (package / 'skills' / 'rules').glob('rules-*/SKILL.md')
+        security_rule = package / 'skills' / 'rules' / 'rules-security' / 'SKILL.md'
+        security_content = security_rule.read_text(encoding='utf-8-sig')
+        security_header = re.match(r'\A---\r?\n.*?^---[ \t]*\r?$', security_content, re.MULTILINE | re.DOTALL)
+        auto_loaded_rule_bytes = len(security_content[security_header.end():].encode('utf-8')) if security_header else len(security_content.encode('utf-8'))
     else:
         rule_root = package / 'rules'
         rule_files = (
             path for path in rule_root.rglob('*.md')
             if 'references' not in path.relative_to(rule_root).parts
         )
+        auto_loaded_rule_bytes = (rule_root / 'security' / 'index.md').stat().st_size
     rule_catalog_bytes = sum(path.stat().st_size for path in rule_files)
 
     agent_root = package / 'agents'
@@ -58,9 +64,10 @@ def measure_package(package, client):
             agent_metadata_bytes += sum(len(agent.get(key, '').encode('utf-8')) for key in ('name', 'description'))
 
     return {
-        'permanent_context_tokens': tokens(instruction_bytes + skill_metadata_bytes),
+        'permanent_context_tokens': tokens(instruction_bytes + skill_metadata_bytes + agent_metadata_bytes + auto_loaded_rule_bytes),
         'instruction_tokens': tokens(instruction_bytes),
         'skill_metadata_tokens': tokens(skill_metadata_bytes),
+        'auto_loaded_rule_tokens': tokens(auto_loaded_rule_bytes),
         'rule_catalog_tokens': tokens(rule_catalog_bytes),
         'agent_metadata_tokens': tokens(agent_metadata_bytes),
     }
@@ -135,7 +142,8 @@ def main():
     failures, warnings = evaluate(current, baseline)
 
     print('Prompt Budget (UTF-8 bytes / 4 estimates; not runtime token measurements)')
-    print('Permanent context includes global instructions and all skill frontmatter; agent metadata, plugins, and tool schemas are separate or excluded.')
+    print('Bundled estimate includes global instructions, skill and agent metadata, and the always-loaded security baseline.')
+    print('Project-specific instructions, external plugin prompt bodies, and live MCP/tool schemas are runtime-dependent and not measured here.')
     if args.summary:
         for metric in METRICS:
             for client in CLIENTS:

scripts/lib/prompt-inventory.py

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ def main():
             directories.append(args.home / '.agents' / 'skills')
         report(f'Installed {client} user catalog', directories)
         report(f'Cached {client} plugins (all versions)', [args.home / f'.{client}' / 'plugins' / 'cache'], warn_duplicates=False)
-    print('Coverage: prompt KPIs cover generated permanent instructions, skill metadata, the full rule catalog, and agent metadata. Rule catalog size does not represent rules loaded in a typical session. Counts are bytes/4 estimates, not runtime token telemetry. Installed prompts, tool schemas, dynamic hook output, and inactive plugin versions are excluded.')
+    print('Coverage: the bundled estimate includes generated global instructions, all skill and agent metadata, and the always-loaded security baseline. The full rule catalog is inventory size, not automatic load. Project-specific instructions, external plugin prompt bodies, and live MCP/tool schemas are runtime-dependent and excluded. Counts are UTF-8 bytes/4 estimates, not runtime token telemetry.')
 
 
 if __name__ == '__main__':