refactor(skills): move marketing-psychology catalogs to references

Keep the decision steps in SKILL.md and move catalogs, examples, and
checklists verbatim to references/ to reduce the context cost of loading the
skill.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

shared/skills/marketing-psychology/references/thinking-models.md

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+# Foundational Thinking Models
+
+These models sharpen your strategy and help you solve the right problems.
+
+## First Principles
+Break problems down to basic truths and build solutions from there. Instead of copying competitors, ask "why" repeatedly to find root causes. Use the 5 Whys technique to tunnel down to what really matters.
+
+**Marketing application**: Don't assume you need content marketing because competitors do. Ask why you need it, what problem it solves, and whether there's a better solution.
+
+## Jobs to Be Done
+People don't buy products—they "hire" them to get a job done. Focus on the outcome customers want, not features.
+
+**Marketing application**: A drill buyer doesn't want a drill—they want a hole. Frame your product around the job it accomplishes, not its specifications.
+
+## Circle of Competence
+Know what you're good at and stay within it. Venture outside only with proper learning or expert help.
+
+**Marketing application**: Don't chase every channel. Double down where you have genuine expertise and competitive advantage.
+
+## Inversion
+Instead of asking "How do I succeed?", ask "What would guarantee failure?" Then avoid those things.
+
+**Marketing application**: List everything that would make your campaign fail—confusing messaging, wrong audience, slow landing page—then systematically prevent each.
+
+## Occam's Razor
+The simplest explanation is usually correct. Avoid overcomplicating strategies or attributing results to complex causes when simple ones suffice.
+
+**Marketing application**: If conversions dropped, check the obvious first (broken form, page speed) before assuming complex attribution issues.
+
+## Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule)
+Roughly 80% of results come from 20% of efforts. Identify and focus on the vital few.
+
+**Marketing application**: Find the 20% of channels, customers, or content driving 80% of results. Cut or reduce the rest.
+
+## Local vs. Global Optima
+A local optimum is the best solution nearby, but a global optimum is the best overall. Don't get stuck optimizing the wrong thing.
+
+**Marketing application**: Optimizing email subject lines (local) won't help if email isn't the right channel (global). Zoom out before zooming in.
+
+## Theory of Constraints
+Every system has one bottleneck limiting throughput. Find and fix that constraint before optimizing elsewhere.
+
+**Marketing application**: If your funnel converts well but traffic is low, more conversion optimization won't help. Fix the traffic bottleneck first.
+
+## Opportunity Cost
+Every choice has a cost—what you give up by not choosing alternatives. Consider what you're saying no to.
+
+**Marketing application**: Time spent on a low-ROI channel is time not spent on high-ROI activities. Always compare against alternatives.
+
+## Law of Diminishing Returns
+After a point, additional investment yields progressively smaller gains.
+
+**Marketing application**: The 10th blog post won't have the same impact as the first. Know when to diversify rather than double down.
+
+## Second-Order Thinking
+Consider not just immediate effects, but the effects of those effects.
+
+**Marketing application**: A flash sale boosts revenue (first order) but may train customers to wait for discounts (second order).
+
+## Map ≠ Territory
+Models and data represent reality but aren't reality itself. Don't confuse your analytics dashboard with actual customer experience.
+
+**Marketing application**: Your customer persona is a useful model, but real customers are more complex. Stay in touch with actual users.
+
+## Probabilistic Thinking
+Think in probabilities, not certainties. Estimate likelihoods and plan for multiple outcomes.
+
+**Marketing application**: Don't bet everything on one campaign. Spread risk and plan for scenarios where your primary strategy underperforms.
+
+## Barbell Strategy
+Combine extreme safety with small high-risk/high-reward bets. Avoid the mediocre middle.
+
+**Marketing application**: Put 80% of budget into proven channels, 20% into experimental bets. Avoid moderate-risk, moderate-reward middle.